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The points-and-miles advice you read last year may already be outdated. Between December 2024 and March 2026, at least four major programs made changes that quietly turned previously great redemptions into mediocre ones. If you’ve been sitting on Chase Ultimate Rewards or Amex Membership Rewards and mentally earmarking them for a summer Europe trip, you need to know which programs survived the devaluation wave intact — and which ones to stop recommending to your friends.
The good news: a few fixed-rate programs held their ground, a couple of live deals are genuinely excellent, and transatlantic travel demand right now is softer than it’s been in years. That combination creates a narrow booking window for summer flights 2026 that doesn’t come around often.
Which Miles and Points Programs Got Worse in 2025–2026
British Airways Avios took a roughly 10% hit across the board in December 2025. The London–New York business class round trip, a perennial favorite, moved from 160,000 to 176,000 Avios. That’s not catastrophic, but it’s real money. More importantly, it signals the direction of travel. British Airways has been quietly ratcheting up pricing for years, and each step makes the program less useful as a redemption vehicle for U.S. award travelers.
Emirates Skywards has become a cautionary tale for transfer partner relationships. Chase removed Emirates as a transfer partner entirely in October 2025. Amex and Citi degraded their transfer rates to 5:4 (meaning 5,000 points only buys you 4,000 Skywards miles). Capital One went further, moving to a 4:3 ratio in January 2026 — a 25% reduction that makes Emirates redemptions significantly more expensive to fund with flexible points. The only major bank still transferring 1:1 to Emirates is Bilt Rewards.
Lufthansa Miles & More moved to dynamic pricing in June 2025, which is industry shorthand for “we reserve the right to charge you more whenever we feel like it.” Dynamic pricing programs aren’t always worse in practice — but they kill the predictability that makes advance planning possible. If you can’t look up a chart and know what a seat costs, you can’t plan.
United MileagePlus made a meaningful change that took effect April 2, 2026: non-cardholders now earn zero miles on Basic Economy tickets. If you’ve been using United flights to build up your balance without a United credit card, that pipeline just closed. Cardholders get a 10–15% award discount, which adds some value back — but only if you’re willing to open a new card (more on that below).
As Jason Steele, senior points and miles contributor at The Points Guy, has observed about dynamic pricing programs: award travel enthusiasts hate devaluations, and that seems to be the primary result when frequent flyer programs remove their award charts. He’s right. The 2025–2026 wave proves it.
The Three Miles Programs That Still Have Fixed Award Charts
When I say “fixed chart,” I mean the program publishes a table: X miles gets you Y seat on Z route. No dynamic fluctuation, no opaque pricing engine. In a world where more programs are abandoning charts, the ones that kept them are considerably more valuable than they were two years ago.
Air Canada Aeroplan is the standout. It added ITA Airways as a partner in February 2026, which opened up a redemption that’s hard to beat: North America to Italy for 40,000 miles in economy or 70,000 in business class. Aeroplan also has generous stopover rules that let you add a free stop in a city you’d otherwise pay to visit separately — a genuinely underused feature that most people skip right past. The program transfers from Chase, Amex, Capital One, and Citi, so you almost certainly have points you can move there.
Alaska Mileage Plan maintains one of the last true partner-based sweet spots in the industry. The program partners with Cathay Pacific and Japan Airlines, and those partnerships enable first-class bookings that would otherwise require enormous point balances. Redemption values typically come in between 1.8 and 3 cents per mile on these partners, depending on route. For a summer transatlantic trip, the relevant point is that Alaska transfers from Amex — so if you hold an Amex Gold Card or a Blue Business Plus, you’ve got a path here.
Flying Blue (Air France/KLM) runs something called Promo Rewards every month — rotating discounted award rates on specific routes. The April 2026 promotions include transatlantic economy from 18,750 miles one-way and business class around 45,000 miles one-way, valid through August 31, 2026. These rates are some of the best value available right now for summer flights 2026. Full stop. Flying Blue transfers from Chase, Amex, Capital One, and Citi.
How the Top Three Programs Compare for Summer 2026
| Program | Route Example | Economy (OW) | Business (OW) | Transfers From |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aeroplan | North America → Italy (ITA) | 40,000 | 70,000 | Chase, Amex, Cap One, Citi |
| Alaska Mileage Plan | Partner sweet spots (Cathay, JAL) | Varies | 50,000–70,000 | Amex |
| Flying Blue | Transatlantic (Promo Rewards) | 18,750 | ~45,000 | Chase, Amex, Cap One, Citi |
Redemption rates are promotional and subject to change. Always verify current availability before transferring points.
Why Summer 2026 Transatlantic Demand Is Unusually Soft Right Now
Here’s what most travel coverage isn’t connecting clearly: transatlantic demand for summer 2026 is measurably soft, and airlines added more seats anyway.
According to Cirium flight data via Thrifty Traveler, US-to-Europe bookings for July 2026 are down 7.2% year-over-year. Europe-to-US is down a sharper 14.2%. Meanwhile, capacity on those routes grew more than 2%. That gap — demand falling while supply expands — is exactly the condition that produces better award availability. Airlines that aren’t filling premium seats with cash passengers are more willing to release them as awards.
Specific city-pair data from the same Cirium analysis makes it concrete: Frankfurt-to-US bookings are down 36% year-over-year for July 2026. Barcelona is down 26%. Amsterdam down 23%. Paris down 21%.
You may have seen confusing headlines. NerdWallet’s travel price tracker shows US airfares up 7.1% year-over-year in February 2026. But KAYAK’s 2026 Travel Trends report shows international fares down 10–16% for summer destinations, with Europe down 14% and Asia down 16%. These aren’t contradictory — they measure different things. NerdWallet captures all US domestic and international fares in aggregate; KAYAK’s data reflects international booking prices specifically. For a summer Europe trip, KAYAK is the relevant signal.
There’s one more honest factor: oil prices have been volatile, and airlines pass those costs through to consumers fast. Mike Stengel of AeroDynamic Advisory told The Points Guy he’d expect airlines to seek to pass on as much of higher fuel costs as possible. Rob Handfield, a supply chain professor at NC State, put it plainly: “If you’re buying for three or four months down the road, I would lock it in and buy now.” Award tickets sidestep the cash fare volatility — once you lock in a miles redemption, you’re hedged against oil price swings entirely.
The Live Award Travel Deals Worth Booking Before August
Flying Blue Promo Rewards are the most accessible deal for most readers. At 18,750 miles one-way in economy for transatlantic routes and roughly 45,000 in business class, these are available for travel through August 31, 2026. Check the Flying Blue website directly — the exact routes on promotion rotate monthly, so available pairings will update for May.
Aer Lingus business class to Dublin is worth knowing about even if Ireland isn’t your final destination. At 50,000 Avios one-way from multiple US cities, with taxes and fees of roughly $150–$215, it’s a legitimately good business class product valid through August 2026. Dublin connects onward to broader Europe with relatively short layovers — it functions as a gateway for modest additional cost. Not glamorous, but it works.
Aeroplan stopover routing is more of a tool than a single deal. Air Canada allows a free stopover in a partner city when booking international awards. If you’re building a trip with multiple European cities, this can eliminate what would otherwise be a separate paid booking. The ITA Airways partnership adds Italy as a practical destination from this program for the first time at reasonable rates.
One timing note worth flagging: premium cabin awards on British Airways, Singapore, and Qatar typically disappear within 24–48 hours of schedule release, which happens 330–361 days before departure. That window has mostly passed for peak summer 2026. However, Lufthansa First and ANA are known to release premium award inventory 2–14 days before departure — so if you’re flexible enough to book short-notice, last-minute sweeps can work on those specific carriers.
How to Get Miles and Points for Summer 2026 If You Don’t Have Them Yet
Most intermediate travelers with Chase or Amex points are closer to a European summer trip than they realize. Here’s how the transfer math works:
For Flying Blue: Both Chase Ultimate Rewards and Amex Membership Rewards transfer to Flying Blue at 1:1. A one-way business class promo award at 45,000 miles means 45,000 Chase or Amex points, plus taxes. A round trip at promo rates lands around 90,000 points — a realistic balance for someone who’s held a mid-tier travel card for a year or two.
For Aeroplan: Chase, Amex, Capital One, and Citi all transfer to Aeroplan at 1:1. The Italy routes at 40,000 economy or 70,000 business one-way are likewise reachable without an extreme points balance.
For Alaska Mileage Plan: Amex is the primary transfer path — the other major bank partners don’t transfer to Alaska directly. If your points are primarily in Chase, you’d need to position through a different program or via an Alaska co-branded card.
A word on credit cards if you’re thinking about applying: opening a new card to hit a welcome bonus can make sense, but think it through. A new card affects your credit utilization and triggers a hard inquiry, which typically causes a temporary score dip. If you’re planning any major loan application — mortgage, car loan, refi — in the next six to twelve months, hold off. Welcome bonuses are attractive, but they’re not worth complicating a mortgage qualification. And if you’re carrying a balance on existing cards, clear that debt first. The interest cost will dwarf whatever you gain in miles.
What to Do If the Award Space Is Already Gone
If you search and find nothing — or the only options left are economy seats on inconvenient connections — a few backup moves are worth knowing.
Wait for last-minute release. Lufthansa First and ANA specifically tend to open award inventory close to departure. If your dates are flexible, checking 7–14 days out on those carriers is a legitimate award travel strategy, not a long shot.
Consider August over July. The demand drop is concentrated in July. Later August tends to have better award availability and slightly fewer crowds. August 15 onward is meaningfully easier than the peak July window — and honestly, the crowds thin out too.
Check cash fares with the KAYAK context in mind. With international fares down 10–16% per KAYAK’s tracking, the cash fare alternative for Europe may be better than you expect. For some itineraries, a $700 cash economy ticket is a smarter use of your balance than a 40,000-mile redemption at 1.75 cents per point — especially when you could hold those miles for something worth more later.
Here’s the bigger picture on your summer flights 2026 booking strategy: points programs aren’t savings accounts. Their value erodes. The devaluation wave of 2025–2026 is a reminder that miles sitting unused are miles slowly becoming less useful. If you have a real Europe trip in mind and the program math works — Flying Blue promo, Aeroplan via ITA, Aer Lingus Avios — booking now beats waiting to see what next year’s programs look like. They probably won’t be better.
Redemption values, transfer ratios, and award availability change frequently. Verify current rates and availability at the program’s website before transferring points. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial, credit, or investment advice. Credit card terms and award program valuations change frequently. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making decisions about credit applications or significant financial commitments.
