The number you keep seeing — smartphones up 31%, laptops up 34%, gaming consoles up 69% — comes from a real study done by real economists. It just models a tariff regime that no longer exists.
Those projections came from a May 2025 Trade Partnership Worldwide analysis commissioned by the CTA, run against worst-case IEEPA tariffs that stacked to an effective 145% rate on Chinese goods. On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. As Covington & Burling documented, IEEPA-based duties stopped being collected on February 24, 2026. The replacement regime — Section 122 — currently runs at 10%, with an announced but not yet formally implemented increase to the statutory ceiling of 15%.
Most of the tariff coverage you’re reading hasn’t caught up. This piece does.
The Headline Numbers Are Wrong (And Here’s Why)
The CTA/Trade Partnership study was legitimate analysis of a legitimate policy scenario. The scenario it modeled, though, involved reciprocal rates, 25% Section 232 tariffs, and IEEPA China duties stacking to effective rates around 145%. That combination produced the eye-catching figures — $123 billion in reduced consumer purchasing power, consoles nearly doubling in price.
That scenario is gone.
The Supreme Court majority found that IEEPA contains no reference to tariffs or duties and does not authorize the President to impose them — holding that when Congress has historically delegated tariff authority, it has done so with explicit language and defined limits. IEEPA tariffs were terminated effective February 24.
CTA CEO Gary Shapiro acknowledged the volatility directly: “The tech exclusion is not a permanent solution. Unpredictability is undermining long-term investment and growth.” He’s right that the situation remains unsettled. The specific math driving most current headlines, though, is outdated. Those are different problems.
What Section 122 Actually Does (And When It Expires)
The White House proclamation established a 10% flat ad valorem import duty across all countries, effective February 24, 2026. The administration has announced intent to push this to the statutory maximum of 15%, though no formal proclamation implementing the increase has been issued as of this writing. USMCA-qualifying goods from Canada and Mexico are fully exempt.
The flat rate is the simple part.
Section 122 is temporary — capped at 150 days by statute, which puts expiration at July 24, 2026 unless Congress acts to extend. Extension is considered unlikely given the current legislative environment. On March 5, 2026, twenty-four state attorneys general filed suit in the Court of International Trade, arguing the administration is misinterpreting Section 122’s “balance of payments” provision. The states contend Congress designed this authority for fixed-rate currency crises, not current conditions. CIT is expected to move quickly; any ruling will likely be appealed regardless of which way it goes.
Then there’s the structural risk that gets less coverage. The USTR launched Section 301 investigations against 16 countries on March 11, 2026, targeting manufacturing overcapacity. Per Holland & Knight’s analysis, overcapacity hearings begin May 5. Section 301 tariffs can be far higher and far more durable than Section 122 — they don’t expire on a 150-day clock. If those investigations produce new duties, the math changes again. That’s the scenario worth watching, not the one that already got struck down.
Consoles: The One Category Where the Panic Is Justified
Gaming consoles are the most exposed consumer electronics category, and that was true even before IEEPA. The economics are brutal: thin manufacturer margins, hardware mostly built in Vietnam and China, no meaningful North American production to backstop a USMCA exemption.
Nintendo already moved. As Game Developer reported, the company raised Switch hardware prices in August 2025 — Switch Lite up $30, standard Switch up $40, Switch OLED up $50 — citing “market conditions” that aligned precisely with the tariff timeline. Nintendo also warned that additional adjustments to Switch 2 pricing “may be necessary in the future.”
Take that warning at face value. Under Section 122 alone, a console manufactured in Vietnam faces the full 10% levy (15% if the announced increase takes effect). If Section 301 produces additional duties on Vietnamese goods — a real possibility given Vietnam’s inclusion in the overcapacity investigation — console prices face another round of increases post-July.
Category verdict: If you want a gaming console and the current price works for your budget, waiting carries genuine risk.
Smartphones: Apple Is Eating the Cost (For Now)
The smartphone math under Section 122 is considerably less alarming than the IEEPA projections suggested. At a 10% effective rate on Chinese manufacturing costs — not retail price — the actual pass-through on a $1,000 iPhone is roughly $100. Not the $310 that the 31% IEEPA projection implied.
Apple has been absorbing rather than passing through. During Apple’s May 2025 earnings call, Tim Cook stated that “if the current global tariff rates do not change…the tariffs will add $900 million to the company’s costs” in the June quarter — a figure representing less than 1% of quarterly revenue. That margin gave Apple room to hold prices without immediate retail impact, and iPhone prices have remained stable through what was projected to be a tariff-stressed fall 2025.
How long that strategy holds is a different question. Cook flagged that the $900 million figure reflected “unique factors” for that specific quarter and shouldn’t be extrapolated. Apple has since absorbed over $3.3 billion in tariff-related costs while expanding its American manufacturing footprint. That works until it doesn’t — and at some point the accumulated cost becomes a pricing problem, not an absorption problem.
Category verdict: iPhone prices are stable through fall 2026 under current Section 122 rates. If Section 301 produces new China-specific duties, that calculus changes. No urgency to buy ahead of a crisis that hasn’t materialized.
TVs and Laptops: Check Where It Was Built
Section 122’s USMCA exemption creates a real split here. A television assembled in Mexico or Canada that qualifies for USMCA treatment faces zero Section 122 tariff. As GovFacts explains, that same television assembled in Vietnam faces the full 10% levy under current rates.
This is actually useful. Major TV lines from Samsung, LG, and TCL include both Mexico-assembled and Vietnam-assembled models within the same product family. Before assuming a price increase is coming on a specific unit, check the country of origin on the product page or the packaging. USMCA-qualifying units are insulated from Section 122 entirely.
Laptops are less clean. Most high-volume consumer laptops are assembled in China or Vietnam, with minimal North American production. Under Section 122 at 10%, expect modest pressure — likely in the 5–10% range on actual retail prices after manufacturers absorb some share. Dell’Oro projects Wi-Fi routers will see 5–15% retail price increases under current tariff conditions, which is a reasonable proxy for similarly-sourced consumer hardware.
Category verdict: USMCA-origin TVs face no tariff pressure. Vietnam/China-origin TVs and most laptops face modest increases under current law. Check the label.
The Real Decision Window: July 24
Here’s the actual timeline that matters:
- April 15: Written comments close on USTR’s Section 301 overcapacity investigation
- April 28: Section 301 forced labor hearings begin
- May 5: Section 301 manufacturing overcapacity hearings begin
- July 24: Section 122 expires (or must be extended by Congress)
The window between May 5 and July 24 is when the structural picture comes into focus. If Section 301 investigations produce new duties before July 24 — particularly on Vietnam and China — and Congress simultaneously extends Section 122, consumers face a stacked tariff environment closer to the IEEPA worst-case than the current 10% reality. If Section 301 stalls, Congress lets Section 122 lapse, and the court challenge succeeds, tariff pressure on electronics eases significantly.
Neither outcome is locked in. That uncertainty is the story. As Best Buy CEO Corie Barry stated in March 2025, “Tariffs at this level will result in price increases” — the question is what “this level” will be after July 24.
Meanwhile, the Tax Foundation estimates the average U.S. household faces roughly $600 in tariff-related costs in 2026 under current law — down from their 2025 estimate of $1,000 per household. That reduction directly reflects the IEEPA-to-Section 122 transition. The panic math produced $1,000. The corrected math produces $600. Still real money.
What Actually Matters Now
Consumer behavior is already distorted by headlines that haven’t been updated. A CNET survey cited by eMarketer found 17% of U.S. adults have already front-loaded big-ticket purchases, while 27% are holding off on items over $500. Both groups are reacting to projections that modeled tariff conditions that no longer exist.
Tariff policy disclaimer: This article reflects tariff conditions as of April 1, 2026. Tariff rates, legal status, and exemptions are subject to rapid change through executive action, Congressional legislation, and ongoing court proceedings. The buy/wait assessments below are based on publicly available tariff data and industry reporting — they are for informational purposes only and do not constitute personalized financial advice. Verify current pricing and conditions before making purchasing decisions.
The category-by-category picture under Section 122 as currently in effect:
| Category | Current Exposure | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Gaming consoles | High (Vietnam/China, thin margins, Section 301 target) | Buy if budget allows |
| Smartphones | Low-moderate (manufacturers absorbing) | No rush |
| TVs — USMCA origin | None | Buy whenever |
| TVs — Vietnam/China origin | Moderate (10%) | Modest price risk |
| Laptops | Moderate (China/Vietnam) | Modest price risk |
| Wi-Fi routers | Moderate (5–15% projected) | No rush |
The smarter question isn’t “should I buy before prices go up?” It’s “what tariff regime will actually be in place after July 24?” That answer arrives over the next few months. Anyone making a panic purchase based on IEEPA math is solving for a problem the Supreme Court resolved six weeks ago.
Don’t take on debt based on projections from a superseded regime. The real decision point comes this summer — and at least now you know what to watch for when it does.
